Academic Unit, East London NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2011 Oct;46(10):975-82. doi: 10.1007/s00127-010-0275-2. Epub 2010 Jul 22.
Suicides account for more than 30,000 deaths per year in the US alone. Suicide rates change over time, and the factors influencing them remain poorly understood. Economic factors, in particular unemployment, have been suggested as a major influence. However, the evidence for this has been inconsistent, which may be partly explained by shortcomings of the statistical methods used.
Time series analytical techniques (unit root and co-integration tests) were applied to test the associations over time between economic factors, i.e. unemployment, real gross domestic product per capita (RGDP) and the consumer price index (CPI) and death rates by suicide as collected by national agencies in the UK (1901-2006), US (1900-1997), France (1970-2004) and Italy (1970-2001). Traditional correlation analyses were used when appropriate.
Co-integration and correlation tests showed a long-run association between economic factors and suicide rates. Increase/decrease of unemployment predicted an increase/decrease of suicide rates over long historical periods and in different nations. RGDP and the CPI were also linked with suicide rates, but this was not consistently so and the direction of the association varied.
Unemployment is a major factor influencing suicide rates over long periods of time and in different national contexts. It needs to be considered as a confounding factor in evaluations of suicide prevention strategies.
仅在美国，每年就有超过 3 万人自杀身亡。自杀率随时间而变化，影响自杀率的因素仍知之甚少。经济因素，特别是失业，被认为是一个主要影响因素。然而，这方面的证据一直不一致，这可能部分解释了所使用的统计方法的缺陷。
时间序列分析技术（单位根和协整检验）被应用于检验英国（1901-2006 年）、美国（1900-1997 年）、法国（1970-2004 年）和意大利（1970-2001 年）的国家机构收集的经济因素（失业率、人均实际国内生产总值（RGDP）和消费者价格指数（CPI））与自杀率之间随时间的关联。在适当的时候，还使用了传统的相关分析。
协整和相关检验显示，经济因素与自杀率之间存在长期关联。失业率的增加/减少预示着自杀率在长期历史时期和不同国家的增加/减少。RGDP 和 CPI 也与自杀率有关，但并非始终如此，关联的方向也有所不同。
失业是影响不同国家和长期时间内自杀率的一个主要因素。在评估自杀预防策略时，需要将其视为一个混杂因素。
