School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Narmak, Tehran, Iran.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2010 Aug;11(4):411-6. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2010.485283.
To identify the most important driver characteristics influencing crash-causing overtaking maneuvers on 2-lane, 2-way rural roads of Iran.
Based on the crash data for rural roads of Iran over 3 years from 2006 to 2008, the classification and regression tree (CART) method combined with the quasi-induced exposure concept was applied for 4 independent variables and one target variable of "driver status" with 2 classes of at fault and not at fault. The independent variables were vehicle type, driver's age, driving license, and driving experience of the driver-the latter 2 driver characteristics are relatively new in traffic safety studies.
According to the data set, 16,809 drivers were involved in 2-lane, 2-way rural roads overtaking crashes. The analysis revealed that drivers who are younger than 28 years old, whose driving license is type 2--a common driving license that is for driving with passenger car and light vehicles--and whose driving experience is less than 2 years are most probably responsible for overtaking crashes.
It was indicated that vehicle type is the most important factor associated with drivers being responsible for the crashes. The results also revealed that younger drivers (18-28 years) are most likely to be at fault in overtaking crashes. Therefore, enforcement and education should be more concentrated on this age group. Due to the incompliant nature of this group, changing the type and amount of traffic fines is essential for more preventing objectives. The research also found 2 relatively new factors of driving license and driving experience to have considerable effects on drivers being at fault, such that type 2 licensed drivers are more responsible compared to type 1 (a driving license for driving with all motor vehicles, which has some age and experience requirements) licensed drivers or drivers with a special license (a driving license with special vehicle types). Moreover, drivers with less than 2 years' driving experience are more responsible for these kind of crashes; thus prohibiting new drivers from driving on rural roads for new drivers seems substantial.
确定影响伊朗两车道双向乡村道路超车事故的最重要驾驶员特征。
基于 2006 年至 2008 年伊朗农村道路三年的事故数据，应用分类回归树（CART）方法结合准诱发暴露概念，对 4 个独立变量和一个驾驶员状态的目标变量进行了分析，该目标变量有两个类别：有责和无责。独立变量为车辆类型、驾驶员年龄、驾驶执照和驾驶员驾驶经验，后两个驾驶员特征在交通安全研究中较为新颖。
根据数据集，有 16809 名驾驶员涉及两车道双向乡村道路超车事故。分析表明，年龄小于 28 岁、驾驶执照类型为 2（一种常见的驾驶执照，可用于驾驶乘用车和轻型车辆）、驾驶经验不足 2 年的驾驶员最有可能对超车事故负责。
研究表明，车辆类型是与驾驶员对事故负责最相关的最重要因素。结果还表明，年轻驾驶员（18-28 岁）最有可能在超车事故中犯错。因此，执法和教育应更加集中在这个年龄组。由于该群体的违规性质，改变交通罚款的类型和金额对于实现更多预防目标至关重要。研究还发现 2 个相对较新的因素，即驾驶执照和驾驶经验，对驾驶员的责任有相当大的影响，即 2 型执照驾驶员比 1 型（驾驶所有机动车辆的执照，有一些年龄和经验要求）或特殊执照（驾驶特殊车辆类型的执照）驾驶员更负责任。此外，驾驶经验不足 2 年的驾驶员对这类事故更负责；因此，禁止新驾驶员在乡村道路上行驶对新驾驶员来说是非常重要的。
