Department of Public Health, Weill Cornell Medical College of Qatar, Doha, Qatar.
East Mediterr Health J. 2010 Mar;16(3):318-23.
Smeed's equation is a widely used model for prediction of traffic fatalities but has been inadequate for use in developing countries. We applied regression analysis to time-series data on vehicles, exponential models for fatality prediction, producing an average absolute error of 20.9% for Qatar, 10.9% for population and traffic fatalities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan and Qatar. The data were fitted to Jordan and 5.5% for the UAE. We found a strong linear relationship between gross domestic product and fatality rate.
斯米德方程是一种广泛用于预测交通死亡人数的模型，但在发展中国家的应用并不充分。我们对车辆的时间序列数据进行了回归分析，对死亡预测进行了指数模型分析，结果表明，卡塔尔的平均绝对误差为 20.9%，阿拉伯联合酋长国（阿联酋）、约旦和卡塔尔的人口和交通死亡人数的平均绝对误差为 10.9%。数据拟合到约旦，阿联酋的平均绝对误差为 5.5%。我们发现国内生产总值与死亡率之间存在很强的线性关系。
