He Huan, Paichadze Nino, Hyder Adnan A, Bishai David
Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Director, Interdepartmental Health Economics Program and Johns Hopkins International Injury Research Unit, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Suite E8132, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
Department of International Health and Johns Hopkins International Injury Research Unit, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2015 Dec;2(1):19. doi: 10.1186/s40621-015-0051-6. Epub 2015 Aug 27.
The relationship between economic development and road safety at sub-national level has not been well established. This study aims to assess the relationships between economic growth (measured by gross regional product (GRP)) and road traffic fatalities (RTFs) and crash fatality ratio (CFR) at sub-national level in Russia.
We used published secondary data on annual RTFs and CFR obtained from the traffic police and socioeconomic development indicators from the statistics department for each Russian federal region (referred to in Russia as "subject") for 2004-2011. We used multivariate fixed effects models for longitudinal data to examine the GRP-RTF and the GRP-CFR relationships excluding regions with extreme values. Time (in years) and a set of relevant socioeconomic variables (territory, population, number of privately owned cars, number of public buses, length of public motor roads, number of physicians, and budget expenditure on health care and physical wellness) were also included as covariates in the models.
The RTF rates decreased monotonically over time as GRP per capita increased in 66 studied regions during 2004-2011. This relationship was mainly explained by the number of privately owned cars and partially explained by year dummy variables, number of buses, and number of physicians. CFR also decreased monotonically as GRP per capita increased in 67 studied regions. This relationship between economic growth and CFR was fully explained by secular time trends. The year dummy effects on CFR were not mediated by other socioeconomic variables included in the study.
For the period of 2004-2011 in Russia, the reduction in RTFs is mostly explained by increasing the number of private cars, while the reduction of CFR is mostly associated with year-effects suggesting a process of diffusion of knowledge, which is not solely dominated by economic growth.
次国家层面经济发展与道路安全之间的关系尚未得到充分确立。本研究旨在评估俄罗斯次国家层面经济增长（以地区生产总值（GRP）衡量）与道路交通死亡人数（RTF）及碰撞死亡率（CFR）之间的关系。
我们使用了已发表的二手数据，这些数据包括2004 - 2011年俄罗斯每个联邦地区（在俄罗斯称为“主体”）交通警察提供的年度RTF和CFR数据，以及统计部门提供的社会经济发展指标。我们使用纵向数据的多元固定效应模型来检验GRP - RTF和GRP - CFR之间的关系，排除了具有极端值的地区。时间（以年为单位）以及一组相关的社会经济变量（领土、人口、私家车数量、公共汽车数量、公共机动车道路长度、医生数量以及医疗保健和身体健康方面的预算支出）也作为协变量纳入模型。
在2004 - 2011年期间，随着66个研究地区人均GRP的增加，RTF率随时间单调下降。这种关系主要由私家车数量解释，部分由年份虚拟变量、公共汽车数量和医生数量解释。在67个研究地区，随着人均GRP的增加，CFR也单调下降。经济增长与CFR之间的这种关系完全由长期时间趋势解释。年份虚拟变量对CFR的影响未被研究中纳入的其他社会经济变量介导。
在2004 - 2011年期间的俄罗斯，RTF的减少主要由私家车数量的增加来解释，而CFR的减少主要与年份效应相关，这表明知识传播过程并不完全由经济增长主导。
