Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Am J Epidemiol. 2010 Oct 1;172(7):762-7. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwq238. Epub 2010 Sep 2.
Since 1980, sunbed use and travel abroad have dramatically increased in Iceland (64°-66°N). The authors assessed temporal trends in melanoma incidence by body site in Iceland in relation to sunbed use and travel abroad. Using joinpoint analysis, they calculated estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) and identified the years during which statistically significant changes in EAPC occurred. Between 1954 and 2006, the largest increase in incidence in men was observed on the trunk (EAPC = 4.6%, 95% confidence interval: 3.2, 6.0). In women, the slow increase in trunk melanoma incidence before 1995 was followed by a significantly sharper increase in incidence, mainly among women aged less than 50 years, resembling an epidemic incidence curve (1995-2002: EAPC = 20.4%, 95% confidence interval: 9.3, 32.8). In 2002, the melanoma incidence on the trunk was higher than the incidence on the lower limbs for women. Sunbed use in Iceland expanded rapidly after 1985, mainly among young women, and in 2000, it was approximately 2 and 3 times the levels recorded in Sweden and in the United Kingdom, respectively. Travels abroad were more prevalent among older Icelanders. The high prevalence of sunbed use probably contributed to the sharp increase in the incidence of melanoma in Iceland.
自 1980 年以来，冰岛（北纬 64°-66°）的日光浴床使用和出国旅游的数量显著增加。作者评估了与日光浴床使用和出国旅游相关的冰岛不同身体部位黑素瘤发病率的时间趋势。他们使用 joinpoint 分析，计算了估计的年平均百分比变化（EAPC），并确定了 EAPC 发生统计学显著变化的年份。1954 年至 2006 年间，男性躯干黑素瘤发病率的增长最大（EAPC=4.6%，95%置信区间：3.2，6.0）。在女性中，1995 年之前躯干黑素瘤发病率的缓慢增长之后，发病率明显上升，主要发生在 50 岁以下的女性中，类似于流行发病率曲线（1995-2002：EAPC=20.4%，95%置信区间：9.3，32.8）。2002 年，女性躯干黑素瘤发病率高于下肢。1985 年后，冰岛的日光浴床使用迅速增加，主要在年轻女性中，而 2000 年，其使用量分别约为瑞典和英国记录水平的 2 倍和 3 倍。出国旅行在冰岛的老年人中更为普遍。日光浴床的高使用率可能导致冰岛黑素瘤发病率的急剧上升。
