Brisbane Broncos Rugby League Club, Brisbane, Australia.
J Strength Cond Res. 2010 Oct;24(10):2593-603. doi: 10.1519/JSC.0b013e3181f19da4.
Limited information exists on the training dose-response relationship in elite collision sport athletes. In addition, no study has developed an injury prediction model for collision sport athletes. The purpose of this study was to develop an injury prediction model for noncontact, soft-tissue injuries in elite collision sport athletes. Ninety-one professional rugby league players participated in this 4-year prospective study. This study was conducted in 2 phases. Firstly, training load and injury data were prospectively recorded over 2 competitive seasons in elite collision sport athletes. Training load and injury data were modeled using a logistic regression model with a binomial distribution (injury vs. no injury) and logit link function. Secondly, training load and injury data were prospectively recorded over a further 2 competitive seasons in the same cohort of elite collision sport athletes. An injury prediction model based on planned and actual training loads was developed and implemented to determine if noncontact, soft-tissue injuries could be predicted and therefore prevented in elite collision sport athletes. Players were 50-80% likely to sustain a preseason injury within the training load range of 3,000-5,000 units. These training load 'thresholds' were considerably reduced (1,700-3,000 units) in the late-competition phase of the season. A total of 159 noncontact, soft-tissue injuries were sustained over the latter 2 seasons. The percentage of true positive predictions was 62.3% (n = 121), whereas the total number of false positive and false negative predictions was 20 and 18, respectively. Players that exceeded the training load threshold were 70 times more likely to test positive for noncontact, soft-tissue injury, whereas players that did not exceed the training load threshold were injured 1/10 as often. These findings provide information on the training dose-response relationship and a scientific method of monitoring and regulating training load in elite collision sport athletes.
关于精英碰撞运动项目运动员的训练剂量-反应关系，目前相关信息有限。此外，尚无研究为碰撞运动项目运动员建立损伤预测模型。本研究旨在为精英碰撞运动项目非接触性软组织损伤建立损伤预测模型。91 名职业橄榄球运动员参与了这项为期 4 年的前瞻性研究。本研究分为两个阶段进行。首先，在精英碰撞运动项目的 2 个竞赛赛季中，前瞻性地记录了训练负荷和损伤数据。使用二项式分布（损伤与无损伤）和对数链接函数的逻辑回归模型对训练负荷和损伤数据进行建模。其次，在同一批精英碰撞运动项目运动员的另外 2 个竞赛赛季中，前瞻性地记录了训练负荷和损伤数据。建立并实施了基于计划和实际训练负荷的损伤预测模型，以确定是否可以预测精英碰撞运动项目运动员的非接触性软组织损伤并进行预防。在训练负荷范围为 3000-5000 个单位时，运动员有 50%-80%的可能在赛季前受伤。在赛季后期的比赛阶段，这些训练负荷“阈值”（1700-3000 个单位）显著降低。在后两个赛季中，共发生 159 例非接触性软组织损伤。真阳性预测的百分比为 62.3%（n=121），而假阳性和假阴性预测的总数分别为 20 和 18。超过训练负荷阈值的运动员发生非接触性软组织损伤的可能性是未超过训练负荷阈值的运动员的 70 倍，而未超过训练负荷阈值的运动员受伤的频率则降低了 1/10。这些发现提供了关于训练剂量-反应关系的信息，以及监测和调节精英碰撞运动项目运动员训练负荷的科学方法。
