Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR5175, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cédex 5, France.
Oecologia. 2011 Apr;165(4):925-33. doi: 10.1007/s00442-010-1771-5. Epub 2010 Sep 18.
In long-lived animals, adult survival is among the most important determinants of population dynamics. Although it may show considerable variation both in time and among populations and sites, a single survival estimate per species is often used in comparative evolutionary studies or in conservation management to identify threatened populations. We estimated adult survival of the isabelline serotine bat Eptesicus isabellinus using capture-recapture data collected on six maternity colonies scattered over a large area (distance 8-103 km) during periods varying from 8 to 26 years. We modelled temporal and inter-colony variations as random effects in a Bayesian framework and estimated mean annual adult survival of females on two scales and a single survival value across all colonies. On a coarse scale, we grouped colonies according to two different habitat types and investigated the effect on survival. A difference in adult survival was detected between the two habitat types [posterior mean of annual survival probability 0.71; 95% credible interval (CI) 0.51-0.86 vs. 0.60; 0.28-0.89], but it was not statistically supported. On a fine scale, survival of the six colonies ranged between 0.58 (95% CI 0.23-0.92) and 0.81 (0.73-0.88), with variation between only two colonies being statistically supported. Overall survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.57-0.93) with important inter-colony variability (on a logit scale 0.98; 95% CI 0.00-8.16). Survival varied temporally in a random fashion across colonies. Our results show that inference based solely on single colonies should be treated with caution and that a representative unbiased estimate of survival for any species should ideally be based on multiple populations.
在长寿动物中，成年个体的存活率是影响种群动态的最重要决定因素之一。尽管每个物种的单一存活率在时间和种群及地点之间可能存在相当大的差异，但在比较进化研究或保护管理中，通常使用单一存活率来识别受威胁的种群。我们使用在六个分散在大面积（距离 8-103 公里）的 maternity 群体上收集的捕获-再捕获数据，估计了伊比利亚伊特提克斯蝙蝠 Eptesicus isabellinus 的成年个体存活率。我们将时间和群体间的变化作为贝叶斯框架中的随机效应进行建模，并在两个尺度上估计了雌性个体的平均年存活率和所有群体的单一存活率。在粗尺度上，我们根据两种不同的栖息地类型对群体进行分组，并研究了其对存活率的影响。两种栖息地类型之间的成年个体存活率存在差异[年存活率概率的后验均值 0.71；95%可信区间（CI）0.51-0.86 与 0.60；0.28-0.89]，但没有统计学支持。在细尺度上，六个群体的存活率范围在 0.58（95%CI 0.23-0.92）至 0.81（0.73-0.88）之间，只有两个群体之间的差异具有统计学意义。总体存活率为 0.72（95%CI 0.57-0.93），群体间存在重要的变异性（在对数尺度上为 0.98；95%CI 0.00-8.16）。存活率在群体间随机变化。我们的研究结果表明，仅基于单个群体的推断应该谨慎对待，任何物种的代表性、无偏估计的存活率理想情况下应该基于多个群体。
