Simulator driving performance predicts accident reports five years later.

L. Hoffman, J. M. McDowd, P. Atchley, and R. A. Dubinsky (2005) reported that visual and attentional impairment (measured by the Useful Field of View test and DriverScan) and performance in a low-fidelity driving simulator did not predict self-reported accidents in the previous 3 years. The present study applied these data to predict accidents occurring within a subsequent 5-year period (N = 114 older adults, 75% retention rate). Multivariate path models revealed that accidents in which the driver was at least partially at fault were significantly more likely in persons who had shown impaired simulator performance. These results suggest that even low-fidelity driving simulators may be useful in predicting real-world outcomes.