Department of Psychology, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 117940-2500, USA.
Emotion. 2010 Jun;10(3):447-53. doi: 10.1037/a0018701.
We examined whether accuracy of affective forecasting for significant life events was moderated by a theoretically relevant individual difference (anxious attachment), with different expected relations to predicted and actual happiness. In 3 studies (2 cross-sectional, 1 longitudinal), participants predicted what their happiness would be after entering or ending a romantic relationship. Consistent with previous research, people were generally inaccurate forecasters. However, inaccuracy for entering a relationship was significantly moderated by anxious attachment. Predictions were largely unrelated to anxious attachment, but actual happiness was negatively related to attachment anxiety. Moderation for breaking up showed a similar but less consistent pattern. These results suggest a failure to account for one's degree of anxious attachment when making affective forecasts and show how affective forecasting accuracy in important life domains may be moderated by a focally relevant individual difference, with systematically different associations between predicted and actual happiness.
我们考察了情感预测对重要生活事件的准确性是否受到理论相关的个体差异（焦虑依恋）的调节，这种差异与预期的预测和实际幸福感有关。在 3 项研究（2 项横断面研究，1 项纵向研究）中，参与者预测了他们在进入或结束一段浪漫关系后的幸福感。与之前的研究一致，人们通常是不准确的预测者。然而，进入一段关系的不准确程度被焦虑依恋显著调节。预测与焦虑依恋关系不大，但实际幸福感与依恋焦虑呈负相关。分手的调节作用表现出类似但不太一致的模式。这些结果表明，在进行情感预测时没有考虑到一个人的焦虑依恋程度，并且展示了在重要生活领域中，情感预测的准确性如何受到一个相关的个体差异的调节，预测和实际幸福感之间存在系统不同的关联。
