Azaele Sandro, Maritan Amos, Bertuzzo Enrico, Rodriguez-Iturbe Ignacio, Rinaldo Andrea
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, E-Quad, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2010 May;81(5 Pt 1):051901. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.81.051901. Epub 2010 May 3.
We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.
我们描述了一个易于分析的霍乱疫情随机模型的预测，该模型基于单次初始爆发。精确模型依赖于一组假设，这些假设可能会限制该方法的通用性，但仍提供了一系列强大的工具和结果。与确定性易感-感染-康复模型通常假设的情况不同，我们不考虑易感个体的耗尽，而是表明一个关于患病个体数量的简单随机方程为在季节性典型时间尺度上发生的疫情衰退提供了一种机制。该模型被证明能够相当准确地描述2000/2001年在南非夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省发生的霍乱疫情的经验数据，可能具有显著的流行病学意义。
