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基于文献的科什克 392 年跨年代多代用(葡萄藤和谷物)重建研究:匈牙利西部科什克 5-7 月气温。

An experimental 392-year documentary-based multi-proxy (vine and grain) reconstruction of May-July temperatures for Kőszeg, West-Hungary.

机构信息

Department of Physical Geography and Geoinformatics, University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary.

出版信息

Int J Biometeorol. 2011 Jul;55(4):595-611. doi: 10.1007/s00484-010-0367-4. Epub 2010 Oct 17.

Abstract

In this paper, we present a 392-year-long preliminary temperature reconstruction for western Hungary. The reconstructed series is based on five vine- and grain-related historical phenological series from the town of Kőszeg. We apply dendrochronological methods for both signal assessment of the phenological series and the resultant temperature reconstruction. As a proof of concept, the present reconstruction explains 57% of the temperature variance of May-July Budapest mean temperatures and is well verified with coefficient of efficiency values in excess of 0.45. The developed temperature reconstruction portrays warm conditions during the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries with a period of cooling until the coldest reconstructed period centred around 1815, which was followed by a period of warming until the 1860s. The phenological evidence analysed here represent an important data source from which non-biased estimates of past climate can be derived that may provide information at all possible time-scales.

摘要

本文为大家呈现了一项针对匈牙利西部长达 392 年的初步温度重建工作。该重建系列基于科塞格镇的五条与葡萄藤和谷物有关的历史物候系列。我们同时采用了树木年代学方法来评估物候系列的信号,并基于此进行温度重建。作为概念验证,本研究成功解释了布达佩斯五月至七月平均气温 57%的温度变化,且效率系数超过 0.45,验证效果良好。该研究开发的温度重建图描绘了十七世纪末到十八世纪初的温暖时期,随后是一段降温期,直到 1815 年前后达到最冷的重建期,之后又迎来了一段升温期,一直持续到 1860 年代。本文分析的物候证据是一个重要的数据源,可以从中得出过去气候的无偏估计值,从而为所有可能的时间尺度提供信息。

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