Al-Jarallah K F, Moussa M A A, Al-Duwairi Y, Zaatar E, Al-Khanfar K F
Kuwait Institute for Medical Specialization, Safat.
Community Dent Health. 2010 Sep;27(3):178-83.
To project the future demand for dentists in Kuwait for the years 2007 to 2020 based on the period 1994 to 2006. The study addresses the supply of and demand for dentists in Kuwait in the light of emerging variables such as increasing population, economic growth, changes in dental care, education strategies, and changes in demographics of dentists.
Population projections for the years 2007 to 2020 were derived using the average annual natural increase rate of the 1994-2006 populations. The future demand for dentists for the years 2007 to 2020 was projected using the average dentist to population ratios of the years 1994-2006.
The average annual growth rate of indigenous Kuwaiti dentists during the period 1994-2006 was 5.58% compared to 31.9% for non-native expatriot dentists. There is a gap between the numbers of native and foreign dentists. In 2006, native dentists constituted 44.4% of the dental workforce in Kuwait, this is likely to affect the quality of provided dental care owing to language, religious and sociocultural barriers between foreign dentists and patients. The disparity between the total number of dentists needed and the number of native dentists is expected to decline from 54.41% in 2007 to 24.67% in 2020.
The supply of native dentists is likely to remain insufficient to meet the projected demand until the year 2020. The supply of indigenous dentists should be increased through improvement in recruitment and retention of Kuwaiti national dentists and dental students.
基于1994年至2006年期间，预测科威特2007年至2020年对牙医的未来需求。该研究根据人口增长、经济增长、牙科护理变化、教育策略以及牙医人口结构变化等新出现的变量，探讨了科威特牙医的供需情况。
使用1994 - 2006年人口的年平均自然增长率得出2007年至2020年的人口预测。利用1994 - 2006年的牙医与人口平均比例预测2007年至2020年对牙医的未来需求。
1994年至2006年期间，科威特本土牙医的年平均增长率为5.58%，而非本土外籍牙医为31.9%。本土和外国牙医数量存在差距。2006年，本土牙医占科威特牙科劳动力的44.4%，由于外国牙医与患者之间的语言、宗教和社会文化障碍，这可能会影响所提供牙科护理的质量。所需牙医总数与本土牙医数量之间的差距预计将从2007年的54.41%降至2020年的24.67%。
到2020年，本土牙医的供应可能仍不足以满足预计需求。应通过改善科威特本国牙医和牙科学生的招聘与留用情况来增加本土牙医的供应。
