Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal da Bahia, 40210-340, Salvador, BA, Brazil.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2010 Dec 28;368(1933):5679-93. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0278.
In this work, we use a mathematical model for dengue transmission with the aim of analysing and comparing two dengue epidemics that occurred in Salvador, Brazil, in 1995-1996 and 2002. Using real data, we obtain the force of infection, Λ, and the basic reproductive number, R(0), for both epidemics. We also obtain the time evolution of the effective reproduction number, R(t), which results in a very suitable measure to compare the patterns of both epidemics. Based on the analysis of the behaviour of R(0) and R(t) in relation to the adult mosquito control parameter of the model, we show that the control applied only to the adult stage of the mosquito population is not sufficient to stop dengue transmission, emphasizing the importance of applying the control to the aquatic phase of the mosquito.
在这项工作中，我们使用了一个登革热传播的数学模型，旨在分析和比较 1995-1996 年和 2002 年在巴西萨尔瓦多发生的两次登革热疫情。使用真实数据，我们获得了两次疫情的感染强度 Λ 和基本繁殖数 R(0)。我们还获得了有效繁殖数 R(t)的时间演变，这是一种非常适合比较两次疫情模式的方法。基于对 R(0)和 R(t)与模型中成年蚊子控制参数关系的分析，我们表明仅对蚊子种群的成虫阶段进行控制不足以阻止登革热的传播，强调了将控制措施应用于蚊子的水生阶段的重要性。
