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利用气候相关的传染病动力学模型评估登革热防控成本的多目标优化。

Multiobjective optimization to assess dengue control costs using a climate-dependent epidemiological model.

机构信息

Postgraduate Program in Mathematical and Computational Modeling (PPGMMC), Federal Center for Technological Education-CEFET-MG, Av. Amazonas, 7675, Nova Gameleira, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 30510-000, Brazil.

Department of Mathematics, Federal Center for Technological Education-CEFET-MG, Av. Amazonas, 7675, Nova Gameleira, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 30510-000, Brazil.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Jun 24;13(1):10271. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-36903-w.

Abstract

Arboviruses, diseases transmitted by arthropods, have become a significant challenge for public health managers. The World Health Organization highlights dengue as responsible for millions of infections worldwide annually. As there is no specific treatment for the disease and no free-of-charge vaccine for mass use in Brazil, the best option is the measures to combat the vector, the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Therefore, we proposed an epidemiological model dependent on temperature, precipitation, and humidity, considering symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue infections. Through computer simulations, we aimed to minimize the amount of insecticides and the social cost demanded to treat patients. We proposed a case study in which our model is fitted with real data from symptomatic dengue-infected humans in an epidemic year in a Brazilian city. Our multiobjective optimization model considers an additional control using larvicide, adulticide, and ultra-low volume spraying. The work's main contribution is studying the monetary cost of the actions to combat the vector demand versus the hospital cost per confirmed infected, comparing approaches with and without additional control. Results showed that the additional vector control measures are cheaper than the hospital treatment without the vector control would be.

摘要

虫媒病毒病是由节肢动物传播的疾病,已成为公共卫生管理者面临的重大挑战。世界卫生组织强调,登革热每年在全球造成数百万人感染。由于该病目前尚无特效疗法,也没有可供巴西大规模使用的免费疫苗,因此最好的选择是采取措施消灭病媒蚊埃及伊蚊。因此,我们提出了一个依赖于温度、降水和湿度的流行病学模型,同时考虑了有症状和无症状的登革热感染。通过计算机模拟,我们旨在减少杀虫剂的使用量和治疗患者所需的社会成本。我们提出了一个病例研究,将我们的模型拟合到巴西一个城市流行年份中感染有症状登革热的人类的真实数据。我们的多目标优化模型考虑了使用幼虫杀虫剂、成虫杀虫剂和超低容量喷雾进行额外的控制。这项工作的主要贡献是研究了与不进行病媒控制相比,防治病媒的行动的货币成本与每个确诊感染的医院成本之间的关系,比较了有和没有额外控制的方法。结果表明,额外的病媒控制措施比没有病媒控制的医院治疗更便宜。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0cb6/10290689/e8eae0e4f6a0/41598_2023_36903_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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