College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Paul D. Coverdell Center for Biomedical and Health Sciences, University of Georgia, 500 D.W. Brooks Drive, Athens, GA 30602-7396, USA.
Cancer Causes Control. 2011 Jan;22(1):41-50. doi: 10.1007/s10552-010-9669-4. Epub 2010 Nov 16.
This ecologic study tested the hypothesis that census tracts with elevated groundwater uranium and more frequent groundwater use have increased cancer incidence.
Data sources included: incident total, leukemia, prostate, breast, colorectal, lung, kidney, and bladder cancers (1996-2005, SC Central Cancer Registry); demographic and groundwater use (1990 US Census); and groundwater uranium concentrations (n = 4,600, from existing federal and state databases). Kriging was used to predict average uranium concentrations within tracts. The relationship between uranium and standardized cancer incidence ratios was modeled among tracts with substantial groundwater use via linear or semiparametric regression, with and without stratification by the proportion of African Americans in each area.
A total of 134,685 cancer cases were evaluated. Tracts with ≥50% groundwater use and uranium concentrations in the upper quartile had increased risks for colorectal, breast, kidney, prostate, and total cancer compared to referent tracts. Some of these relationships were more likely to be observed among tracts populated primarily by African Americans.
SC regions with elevated groundwater uranium and more groundwater use may have an increased incidence of certain cancers, although additional research is needed since the design precluded adjustment for race or other predictive factors at the individual level.
本生态研究检验了这样一个假设,即铀含量较高的地下水普查区和更频繁使用地下水的普查区癌症发病率更高。
数据来源包括:1996 年至 2005 年南卡罗来纳州中部癌症登记处报告的全部癌症、白血病、前列腺癌、乳腺癌、结直肠癌、肺癌、肾癌和膀胱癌的发病数据;1990 年美国人口普查的人口统计学数据和地下水使用情况;以及(n=4600)现有联邦和州数据库中的地下水铀浓度数据。克里金法被用于预测普查区的平均铀浓度。通过线性或半参数回归,对大量使用地下水的普查区进行建模,分析铀与标准化癌症发病率比值之间的关系,并按每个地区的非裔美国人比例进行分层。
共评估了 134685 例癌症病例。与参照普查区相比,地下水使用率≥50%且铀浓度处于上四分位数的普查区,结直肠癌、乳腺癌、肾癌、前列腺癌和全部癌症的发病风险增加。这些关系中的一些更可能在以非裔美国人为主的普查区中观察到。
南卡罗来纳州铀含量较高的地下水和更多使用地下水的地区,某些癌症的发病率可能会增加,但由于设计上无法在个体层面调整种族或其他预测因素,还需要进一步研究。