Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Int J Epidemiol. 2010 Dec;39 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):ii21-8. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyq209.
Before 2003, little was known about the scale of China's HIV/AIDS epidemic. In 2003, the Chinese government produced national estimates with support from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, the World Health Organization and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Subsequent national estimation exercises were carried out in 2005, 2007 and 2009. We describe these estimation processes and present the results of China's HIV/AIDS estimation exercises from 2003 to 2009.
The Workbook Method was used to generate national HIV/AIDS estimates. Data from the provincial level were used in 2003, data from the prefecture level were used in 2005 and data from the county level were used in 2007 and 2009. Data at the lowest level of aggregation were used to estimate risk group population size and HIV prevalence. Data from lower levels were combined into national estimates.
At the end of 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009, there were an estimated 0.84, 0.65, 0.70 and 0.74 million people living with HIV/AIDS in China, respectively, with an overall HIV prevalence of 0.05-0.06%. The number of new HIV infections decreased from 70 000 in 2005, to 50 000 in 2007, to 48 000 in 2009. Data quality improvements have increased the precision of China's HIV estimates.
Repeated estimates have improved understanding of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China. HIV estimates are a valuable tool for guiding national AIDS policies evaluating HIV prevention and control programmes.
2003 年以前，中国对艾滋病流行的规模知之甚少。2003 年，在中国政府的支持下，联合国艾滋病规划署、世界卫生组织和美国疾病控制与预防中心共同完成了全国艾滋病估计数。随后在 2005 年、2007 年和 2009 年又进行了后续的全国估计数的计算。本文描述了这些估计过程，并介绍了中国 2003-2009 年艾滋病估计数的结果。
采用工作簿法进行全国艾滋病估计。2003 年使用省级数据，2005 年使用地市级数据，2007 年和 2009 年使用县级数据。采用最低汇总层的数据来估计危险人群的人口规模和 HIV 流行率。使用较低层的数据进行全国估计。
截至 2003 年底、2005 年底、2007 年底和 2009 年底，中国估计有 84 万、65 万、70 万和 74 万艾滋病毒感染者和艾滋病患者，HIV 总流行率为 0.05%-0.06%。新的 HIV 感染人数从 2005 年的 7 万减少到 2007 年的 5 万，再到 2009 年的 4.8 万。数据质量的提高提高了中国 HIV 估计的精确性。
反复的估计提高了对中国艾滋病流行的认识。HIV 估计是指导国家艾滋病政策、评估艾滋病预防和控制规划的一个有价值的工具。
