Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), Sciences Po Paris, 27 Rue Saint-Guillaume, 75007 Paris, France.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2011 Jan 13;369(1934):182-95. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0287.
Massive population displacements are now regularly presented as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Current forecasts and projections show that regions that would be affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and deltaic regions, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. Such estimates, however, are usually based on a 2°C temperature rise. In the event of a 4°C+ warming, not only is it likely that climate-induced population movements will be more considerable, but also their patterns could be significantly different, as people might react differently to temperature changes that would represent a threat to their very survival. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would affect not only the magnitude of the associated population movements, but also--and above all--the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4°C+ world would require.
大规模人口迁移现在经常被认为是气候变化可能带来的最显著后果之一。目前的预测和预测显示，可能受到此类人口迁移影响的地区是地势低洼的岛屿、沿海和三角洲地区以及撒哈拉以南非洲。然而，这些估计通常基于 2°C 的温升。如果出现 4°C+的变暖，不仅气候引起的人口迁移可能会更加显著，而且它们的模式可能会有很大的不同，因为人们可能会对那些对他们的生存构成威胁的温度变化做出不同的反应。本文提出了这样一个假设，即更大的温度变化不仅会影响相关人口迁移的规模，而且还会影响这些迁移的特征，因此也会影响可以应对这些迁移的政策反应。本文概述了在 4°C+的世界中，气候引发的流离失所需要的政策演变。
