School of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, Scotland.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Dec 28;107(52):22442-7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1006141107. Epub 2010 Dec 9.
Modeling and measurements show that Atlantic marine temperatures are rising; however, the low temporal resolution of models and restricted spatial resolution of measurements (i) mask regional details critical for determining the rate and extent of climate variability, and (ii) prevent robust determination of climatic impacts on marine ecosystems. To address both issues for the North East Atlantic, a fortnightly resolution marine climate record from 1353-2006 was constructed for shallow inshore waters and compared to changes in marine zooplankton abundance. For the first time summer marine temperatures are shown to have increased nearly twice as much as winter temperatures since 1353. Additional climatic instability began in 1700 characterized by ∼5-65 year climate oscillations that appear to be a recent phenomenon. Enhanced summer-specific warming reduced the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a key food item of cod, and led to significantly lower projected abundances by 2040 than at present. The faster increase of summer marine temperatures has implications for climate projections and affects abundance, and thus biomass, near the base of the marine food web with potentially significant feedback effects for marine food security.
建模和测量表明,大西洋海洋温度正在上升;然而,模型的时间分辨率低和测量的空间分辨率有限(i)掩盖了对确定气候变化速度和范围至关重要的区域细节,以及(ii)无法可靠确定对海洋生态系统的气候影响。为了解决东北大西洋的这两个问题,构建了一个从 1353 年到 2006 年的每两周分辨率的浅海近岸海域海洋气候记录,并与海洋浮游动物丰度的变化进行了比较。首次表明,自 1353 年以来,夏季海洋温度的上升速度几乎是冬季的两倍。自 1700 年以来,气候不稳定性开始增加,其特征是约 5-65 年的气候振荡,这似乎是最近才出现的现象。夏季特定的变暖增强降低了鳕鱼关键食物来源——桡足类磷虾的丰度,并导致到 2040 年的预测丰度明显低于当前水平。夏季海洋温度的快速上升对气候预测有影响,并影响海洋食物网底部的丰度和生物量,从而对海洋粮食安全产生潜在的重大反馈影响。