Warner David F, Hayward Mark D, Hardy Melissa A
Center for Family and Demographic Research, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH 43403, USA.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2010 Jan 12;29(6):893-919. doi: 10.1007/s11113-009-9173-2.
As the baby boom cohorts expand the number of U.S. retirees, population estimates of the employment, withdrawal and reentry behaviors of older Americans' remain scarce. How long do people work? How frequently is retirement reversed? How many years are people retired? What is the modal age of retirement? And, how do the patterns for women compare to those for men? Using the 1992-2004 Health and Retirement Study, we estimate multistate working life tables to update information on the age-graded regularities of the retirement life course of men and women in the United States. We find that at age 50 men can expect to spend half of their remaining lives working for pay, while women can expect to spend just one-third. Half of all men and women have left the labor force by ages 63 and 61, respectively. Although the majority of retirement exits are final, variation in the nature and duration of the retirement process is substantial, as about a third of men's and women's exits are reversed. By quantifying these patterns for men and women, we provide a sound empirical basis for evaluating policy designed to address the financial pressures population aging places on public and private pension systems.
随着婴儿潮一代使美国退休人员数量增加，关于美国老年人就业、退出和重新进入劳动力市场行为的人口估计仍然很少。人们工作多长时间？退休状态逆转的频率如何？人们退休多少年？退休的典型年龄是多少？而且，女性的模式与男性相比如何？利用1992年至2004年的健康与退休研究，我们估计了多状态工作寿命表，以更新关于美国男性和女性退休生活历程年龄分级规律的信息。我们发现，50岁时，男性预计将把余生的一半时间用于有偿工作，而女性预计只用三分之一的时间。所有男性和女性中，分别有一半在63岁和61岁时离开劳动力市场。尽管大多数退休退出是最终的，但退休过程的性质和持续时间存在很大差异，因为男性和女性约三分之一的退出状态会逆转。通过量化男性和女性的这些模式，我们为评估旨在应对人口老龄化给公共和私人养老金系统带来的财政压力的政策提供了可靠的实证依据。
