Gunter L, Zhu J, Murphy S A
Department of Statistics, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 48109, U.S.A.
Stat Methodol. 2011 Jan 30;1(8):42-55. doi: 10.1016/j.stamet.2009.05.003.
In this article we discuss variable selection for decision making with focus on decisions regarding when to provide treatment and which treatment to provide. Current variable selection techniques were developed for use in a supervised learning setting where the goal is prediction of the response. These techniques often downplay the importance of interaction variables that have small predictive ability but that are critical when the ultimate goal is decision making rather than prediction. We propose two new techniques designed specifically to find variables that aid in decision making. Simulation results are given along with an application of the methods on data from a randomized controlled trial for the treatment of depression.
在本文中,我们讨论决策中的变量选择,重点关注关于何时提供治疗以及提供何种治疗的决策。当前的变量选择技术是为监督学习环境而开发的,其目标是预测响应。这些技术常常淡化交互变量的重要性,这些交互变量虽然预测能力较小,但当最终目标是决策而非预测时却至关重要。我们提出了两种专门设计用于寻找有助于决策的变量的新技术。给出了模拟结果以及这些方法在一项治疗抑郁症的随机对照试验数据上的应用。