Global microbial ecology: biogeography and diversity of Vibrios as a model.

An environmental source of cholera was hypothesized as early as the late nineteenth century by Robert Koch, but not proven because of the ability of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of cholera, to enter a dormant phase between epidemics. Standard bacteriological procedures for isolation of the vibrios from the environmental samples, including water, between epidemics generally were unsuccessful. Vibrio cholera, a marine vibrio requiring salt for growth, enters into a dormant 'viable but non-culturable' stage when conditions are unfavourable for growth and reproduction. The association of V. cholera with plankton, notably copepods, provides evidence for the environmental origin of cholera, as well as an explanation for the sporadic and erratic nature of cholera epidemics. Thus, the association of V. cholera with plankton was established only recently, allowing analysis of epidemic patterns of cholera, especially in those countries where cholera is endemic. The sporadic and erratic nature of cholera epidemics can now be related to climate and climate events, such as El Niño. Since zooplankton have been shown to harbour the bacterium and zooplankton blooms follow phytoplankton blooms, remote sensing can be employed to determine the relationship of cases of cholera with chlorophyll, as well as sea surface temperature (SST), ocean height, and turbidity. Cholera occurs seasonally in Bangladesh with two annual peaks in the number of cases occurring each year. From the data obtained and analysed to date, when the height of the ocean is high and sea surface temperature is also elevated, cholera cases are numerous. When the height is low and sea surface temperature is also low, little or no cholera is recorded. From the examination of data for the 1992-1993 cholera epidemic in India, preliminary comparisons of cholera data for Calcutta show a similar relationship between cholera cases, ocean height and SST. In conclusion, from results of studies of SST, phytoplankton and zooplankton, and their relationships to incidence of cholera, correlation of selected climatological factors and incidence of V. cholera appears to be significant, bringing the potential of predicting conditions conducive to cholera outbreaks closer to reality.