Department of Ecology and Evolution and Consortium for Inter-Disciplinary Environmental Research, SUNY Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2011 Feb 15;45(4):1219-27. doi: 10.1021/es102373d. Epub 2011 Jan 11.
Identifying drivers of deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots is critical to assess threats to particular ecosystems and species and proactively plan for conservation. We analyzed land cover change between 2002 and 2007 in the northern Andes, Chocó, and Amazon forests of Colombia, the largest producer of coca leaf for the global cocaine market, to quantify the impact of this illicit crop on forest dynamics, evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in this context, and determine the effects of eradication on deforestation. Landscape-level analyses of forest conversion revealed that proximity to new coca plots and a greater proportion of an area planted with coca increased the probability of forest loss in southern Colombia, even after accounting for other covariates and spatial autocorrelation. We also showed that protected areas successfully reduced forest conversion in coca-growing regions. Neither eradication nor coca cultivation predicted deforestation rates across municipalities. Instead, the presence of new coca cultivation was an indicator of municipalities, where increasing population led to higher deforestation rates. We hypothesize that poor rural development underlies the relationship between population density and deforestation in coca-growing areas. Conservation in Colombia's vast forest frontier, which overlaps with its coca frontier, requires a mix of protected areas and strategic rural development to succeed.
确定热带生物多样性热点地区森林砍伐的驱动因素对于评估特定生态系统和物种所面临的威胁以及有针对性地制定保护计划至关重要。我们分析了 2002 年至 2007 年间哥伦比亚北部安第斯山脉、乔科和亚马逊森林的土地覆盖变化，以量化这种非法作物对森林动态的影响，评估保护区在这种情况下的有效性，并确定根除对森林砍伐的影响。森林转换的景观水平分析表明，在南哥伦比亚，新古柯种植区的临近以及更大比例的土地种植古柯增加了森林损失的可能性，即使考虑到其他协变量和空间自相关。我们还表明，保护区成功地减少了古柯种植地区的森林转换。根除和古柯种植都不能预测整个市镇的森林砍伐率。相反，新古柯种植的存在是一个指标，表明在古柯种植地区，人口增长导致了更高的森林砍伐率。我们假设，在古柯种植地区，人口密度与森林砍伐之间的关系是贫困农村发展的结果。哥伦比亚广阔的森林边境（与古柯边境重叠）的保护需要保护区和战略性农村发展的结合才能成功。
