Biodiversity Dynamics, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Darwin building, Darwinweg 4, Leiden 2300 AA, The Netherlands. ; Ecology and Biodiversity Group, Utrecht University, Padualaan 8, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Science and Education, The Field Museum, 1400 S. Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605-2496, USA. ; Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
Sci Adv. 2015 Nov 20;1(10):e1500936. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500936. eCollection 2015 Nov.
Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world's >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century.
对亚马逊地区动植物物种灭绝风险的估计很少见，也不常被纳入土地利用政策和保护规划中。我们将空间分布模型与历史和预测的森林砍伐情况叠加，结果表明，根据国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）红色名录标准，至少有 36%，甚至高达 57%的亚马逊地区树种可能被视为全球受威胁物种。如果得到证实，这些结果将使地球上受威胁的植物物种数量增加 22%。我们表明，在亚马逊地区观察到的趋势适用于整个热带地区的树木，我们预测，世界上 4 万多种热带树种中，大多数现在都被视为全球受威胁物种。差距分析表明，如果现有的亚马逊保护区和土著领土不再退化，那么大多数受威胁物种的可行种群将得到保护，这突显了保护区、土著人民和改善治理在本世纪防止热带地区大规模灭绝方面可以发挥的关键作用。
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