Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2011 Feb;101(2):310-4. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.189225.
We examined the effect of current patterns of smoking rates on future radon-related lung cancer.
We combined the model developed by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Health Risks of Exposure to Radon (the BEIR VI committee) for radon risk assessment with a forecasting model of US adult smoking prevalence to estimate proportional decline in radon-related deaths during the present century with and without mitigation of high-radon houses.
By 2025, the reduction in radon mortality from smoking reduction (15 percentage points) will surpass the maximum expected reduction from remediation (12 percentage points).
Although still a genuine source of public health concern, radon-induced lung cancer is likely to decline substantially, driven by reductions in smoking rates. Smoking decline will reduce radon deaths more that remediation of high-radon houses, a fact that policymakers should consider as they contemplate the future of cancer control.
我们研究了当前吸烟率模式对未来氡相关肺癌的影响。
我们将美国国家科学院健康风险暴露于氡委员会（BEIR VI 委员会）开发的氡风险评估模型与美国成人吸烟流行率预测模型相结合，以估算在不采取和采取高氡房屋缓解措施的情况下，本世纪与氡相关的死亡人数的比例下降。
到 2025 年，吸烟减少（15 个百分点）导致的氡死亡率降低将超过修复（12 个百分点）的最大预期降低。
尽管氡诱发肺癌仍然是一个真正的公共卫生关注点，但由于吸烟率的降低，它很可能会大幅下降。吸烟率的下降将比修复高氡房屋导致的氡死亡人数减少更多，政策制定者在考虑癌症控制的未来时应考虑到这一事实。
