Mendez David, Warner Kenneth E
Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, 48109-2029, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2004 Feb;94(2):251-2. doi: 10.2105/ajph.94.2.251.
We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 =.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.
我们将1995 - 2002年观察到的吸烟率数据与先前发表的人口动态模型得出的预测结果进行了比较，以确定近期吸烟率趋势是否与我们预测的下降模式一致。观察数据与我们的预测结果非常吻合（R² = 0.89）。基于该模型背后的逻辑，我们得出结论，在可预见的未来，成人吸烟率将继续下降，尽管下降速度约为20世纪70年代和80年代下降速度的一半。
