Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-2902, USA.
Risk Anal. 2011 May;31(5):773-86. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01555.x. Epub 2011 Jan 13.
We examine the reduction in London Underground passenger journeys in response to the July 2005 bombings. Using entrance data for London Underground stations between 2001 and 2007, we incorporate demand and supply factors in a multivariate time-series regression model to estimate changes in passenger journeys between different Underground lines. We find that passenger journeys fell by an average of 8.3% for the 4 months following the attacks. This amounts to an overall reduction of 22.5 million passenger journeys for that period. Passenger journeys returned to predicted levels during September 2005, yet we find evidence of reduced travel until June 2006. Our estimates controlled for other factors, including reduced Underground service provision due to damage from the attacks, economic conditions, and weather, yet substantial reductions in passenger journeys remained. Around 82% of passenger journey reductions following the 2005 attacks cannot be attributed to supply-side factors or demand-side factors such as economic conditions, weather, or the summer school-break alone. We suggest that this reduction may partially be due to an increased perception of the risk of Underground travel after the attacks.
我们考察了 2005 年 7 月爆炸事件后伦敦地铁乘客出行量的减少情况。我们使用了 2001 年至 2007 年伦敦地铁站的入口数据，在一个多元时间序列回归模型中纳入了需求和供应因素，以估计不同地铁线路之间的乘客出行变化。我们发现，在袭击发生后的 4 个月里，乘客出行量平均下降了 8.3%。这意味着该期间的总乘客出行量减少了 2250 万次。2005 年 9 月，乘客出行量恢复到预测水平，但我们发现直到 2006 年 6 月，出行量仍有所减少。我们的估计控制了其他因素，包括袭击造成的地铁服务供应减少、经济状况和天气，但乘客出行量仍大幅减少。2005 年袭击事件后，大约 82%的乘客出行减少不能归因于供应方因素或需求方因素，如经济状况、天气或暑期休假。我们认为，这种减少可能部分是由于袭击事件后人们对地铁出行风险的认知增加所致。
