Lee R
Department of Economics and Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 S. University Ave., 48104, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Demography. 1974 Nov;11(4):563-85. doi: 10.2307/2060471.
This paper analyzes the pattern of fluctuations of births in an age-structured population whose growth is subject to environmental or economic constraint. It synthesizes the traditional demographic analysis of age-structured renewal with constant vital rates and the economic analysis which treats population change endogenously. When cohort fertility depends on relative cohort size, or when period fertility depends on labor force size, fluctuations of forty or more years replace the traditional "echo" or generation-length cycle. Twentieth-century U. S. fertility change agrees well with the theory, as the "Easterlin Hypothesis" suggests; but the period model fits better than the cohort model.
本文分析了一个年龄结构人口的出生波动模式，该人口的增长受到环境或经济限制。它综合了传统的具有恒定生命率的年龄结构更新的人口统计学分析和将人口变化视为内生变量的经济分析。当同期群生育率取决于同期群相对规模，或者时期生育率取决于劳动力规模时，四十多年的波动取代了传统的“回声”或代际周期。正如“伊斯特林假说”所表明的，20世纪美国的生育率变化与该理论非常吻合；但时期模型比同期群模型拟合得更好。
