总体人口与经济增长的相关性：人口结构变化各组成部分的作用。
Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: the role of the components of demographic change.
作者信息
Kelley A C, Schmidt R M
机构信息
Department of Economics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
出版信息
Demography. 1995 Nov;32(4):543-55.
The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus "nonsignificant" correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.
近期的相关性研究结果显示，20世纪80年代跨国数据中人口增长对经济发展有负面影响，而20世纪60年代和70年代普遍存在“不显著”的相关性。本文运用人口变化的同期和滞后因素、趋同型经济模型以及几种统计框架对此进行了研究。研究发现，在早期，出生和死亡的单独影响显著，但相互抵消。相比之下，在20世纪80年代，出生的短期成本（效益）显著增加（减少），过去出生对劳动力的有利影响并未完全抵消。
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