Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, PO Box 80178, 3508 TD Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Occup Environ Med. 2011 Oct;68(10):765-70. doi: 10.1136/oem.2010.061135. Epub 2011 Feb 1.
Land use regression (LUR) modelling is a popular method to estimate outdoor air pollution concentrations at the home and/or work addresses of individual subjects in epidemiological studies. Typically, such models are constructed using measurements from dedicated monitoring campaigns lasting up to 1 year. It is unknown to what extent such models can adequately predict concentrations in earlier or later time periods. We tested the stability of measured and modelled spatial contrasts in outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) pollution across the Netherlands over 8 years.
NO(2) measurements were conducted at 40 locations in the Netherlands in 1999-2000. In 2007, NO(2) was again measured at 144 locations, of which 35 were the same as in 1999-2000. This enabled us to compare measurements as well as model predictions between the two time periods.
NO(2) measurements conducted in 2007 agreed well with NO(2) measurements taken in 1999-2000 at the same locations (R(2)=0.86). LUR models from 1999-2000 and 2007 explained 85% and 86% of observed spatial variance, respectively. The 2007 LUR model explained 77% of spatial variability in the 1999-2000 measurements and the 1999-2000 model explained 81% of variability in the 2007 measurements.
We found good agreement between measured spatial contrasts in outdoor NO(2) in 1999-2000 and 2007. LUR models predicted spatial contrast 8 years in the past (2007 model) and 8 years in the future (1999-2000 model) well. This supports the use of LUR models in epidemiological studies with health data available for a later or earlier timepoint.
土地利用回归（LUR）建模是一种在流行病学研究中估算个体家庭和/或工作场所室外空气污染浓度的常用方法。通常，此类模型是使用长达 1 年的专门监测活动的测量值构建的。目前尚不清楚此类模型在更早或更晚的时间段内能够在多大程度上充分预测浓度。我们检验了荷兰在 8 年内户外二氧化氮（NO2）污染的测量值和模型预测值的空间差异的稳定性。
1999-2000 年在荷兰的 40 个地点进行了 NO2 测量。2007 年，在 144 个地点再次测量了 NO2，其中 35 个与 1999-2000 年相同。这使我们能够比较两个时间段的测量值和模型预测值。
2007 年进行的 NO2 测量值与同一地点 1999-2000 年的测量值吻合较好（R2=0.86）。1999-2000 年和 2007 年的 LUR 模型分别解释了 85%和 86%的观测空间方差。2007 年的 LUR 模型解释了 1999-2000 年测量值的 77%的空间变异性，而 1999-2000 年的模型解释了 2007 年测量值的 81%的变异性。
我们发现 1999-2000 年和 2007 年户外 NO2 的测量空间差异之间存在良好的一致性。LUR 模型很好地预测了 8 年前的空间差异（2007 年模型）和 8 年后的空间差异（1999-2000 年模型）。这支持在有健康数据的后期或更早时间点的流行病学研究中使用 LUR 模型。
