Griffith School of Engineering, Nathan Campus, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia.
J Hazard Mater. 2011 Mar 15;187(1-3):480-7. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2011.01.054. Epub 2011 Jan 18.
In health risk assessment, risk is commonly characterised by calculating a simple hazard quotient (HQ), which cannot reflect the actual distribution of exposure and health effect values. This study aimed to develop a new risk characterisation method, the overall risk probability (ORP) method based on probabilistic techniques. Exposure exceedence values were calculated to obtain an exposure exceedence curve (EEC). The area under the EEC was calculated as the ORP value to represent the risk. This method was demonstrated by a case study for two steroidal EDCs, 17β-estradiol (E2) and 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2) for fish in surface water. It was found that the risk probability of fish exposed to E2 (ORP, 8.1%) and EE2 (ORP, 27%) were both above the reference value of 2.5%, which was consistent with the results of HQ method. Assuming independent action of individual EDCs, a combined risk probability of 33% was obtained for the mixture effects of E2 and EE2. Our results implicated that the adverse health effects imposed by E2 and EE2 were significant for fish in surface water worldwide.
在健康风险评估中，风险通常通过计算简单的危害商数（HQ）来描述，而这种方法无法反映暴露和健康效应值的实际分布。本研究旨在开发一种新的风险特征描述方法，即基于概率技术的整体风险概率（ORP）方法。通过计算暴露超过值来获得暴露超过曲线（EEC）。EEC 的面积被计算为 ORP 值，以代表风险。通过对两种甾体类内分泌干扰物 17β-雌二醇（E2）和 17α-乙炔基雌二醇（EE2）在地表水鱼类中的案例研究来验证该方法。结果发现，暴露于 E2（ORP，8.1%）和 EE2（ORP，27%）的鱼类的风险概率均高于 2.5%的参考值，这与 HQ 方法的结果一致。假设个别内分泌干扰物的独立作用，E2 和 EE2 的混合物对鱼类的综合风险概率为 33%。我们的结果表明，E2 和 EE2 对世界范围内地表水鱼类造成的不良健康影响是显著的。
