Regional Medical Research Centre, ICMR, Northeast Region, Post Box 105, Dibrugarh, 786001, Assam, India.
Ecohealth. 2013 Jun;10(2):129-36. doi: 10.1007/s10393-013-0849-z. Epub 2013 May 25.
Weather and anthropogenic factors are important determinants for Japanese encephalitis (JE) transmission. During 2008-2010, an increasing trend of JE was observed in Dibrugarh district of Northeast India. The JE cases were found to be clustered between June to October in each year. Monthly minimum temperature and rainfall were significantly associated with JE transmission at 1 and 2 months lagged. However, the relationship was more prominent at a lag of 1 month than that of two. Regression analysis suggested that rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and relative humidity at 6:00 h are significant predictors (P < 0.05) of quarterly occurrence of JE cases. Additional anthropogenic risk factors including the conditions such as pig sty/cattle shed around and lower part of the houses and proximity of rice field to the dwelling houses (P < 0.05) were also found to be predictors for JE occurrence. Meteorological and anthropogenic risk factors can be used to forecast JE outbreaks in Assam which in turn can help the local health authorities to protect communities in JE prone areas.
天气和人为因素是日本脑炎（JE）传播的重要决定因素。2008-2010 年期间，印度东北部迪布鲁加尔区观察到 JE 呈上升趋势。每年 6 月至 10 月，JE 病例呈聚集性分布。每月最低温度和降雨量与 JE 传播呈 1 个月和 2 个月的滞后相关。然而，滞后 1 个月的相关性比滞后 2 个月更为显著。回归分析表明，降雨量、最低和最高温度以及 6:00 时的相对湿度是 JE 病例季度发生的重要预测因素（P<0.05）。此外，人为风险因素，如猪圈/牛棚在房屋周围和房屋下部，以及稻田靠近住所等（P<0.05），也被发现是 JE 发生的预测因素。气象和人为风险因素可用于预测阿萨姆邦的 JE 疫情爆发，这反过来又可以帮助当地卫生当局保护 JE 多发地区的社区。
