离婚是一种危险行为。
Divorce as risky behavior.
机构信息
Department of Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA.
出版信息
Demography. 2010 Nov;47(4):895-921. doi: 10.1007/BF03213732.
Given that divorce often represents a high-stakes income gamble, we ask how individual levels of risk tolerance affect the decision to divorce. We extend the orthodox divorce model by assuming that individuals are risk averse, that marriage is risky, and that divorce is even riskier. The model predicts that conditional on the expected gains to marriage and divorce, the probability of divorce increases with relative risk tolerance because risk averse individuals require compensation for the additional risk that is inherent in divorce. To implement the model empirically, we use data for first-married women and men from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate a probit model of divorce in which a measure of risk tolerance is among the covariates. The estimates reveal that a 1-point increase in risk tolerance raises the predicted probability of divorce by 4.3% for a representative man and by 11.4% for a representative woman. These findings are consistent with the notion that divorce entails a greater income gamble for women than for men.
鉴于离婚通常代表着一场高风险的收入博弈，我们探讨了个体的风险承受能力如何影响离婚决策。我们通过假设个体是厌恶风险的、婚姻是有风险的以及离婚甚至更具风险，对传统的离婚模型进行了扩展。该模型预测，在婚姻和离婚的预期收益的条件下，离婚的概率会随着相对风险承受能力的增加而增加，因为厌恶风险的个体需要为离婚所固有的额外风险进行补偿。为了在经验上实施该模型，我们使用了 1979 年全国青年纵向调查中首次结婚的女性和男性的数据，以估计一个离婚的概率模型，其中风险承受能力的一个衡量标准是协变量之一。估计结果显示，对于一个典型的男性，风险承受能力每增加一个点，离婚的预测概率就会增加 4.3%；对于一个典型的女性，离婚的预测概率则会增加 11.4%。这些发现与离婚对女性的收入风险比男性更大的观点是一致的。
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