Coordenação de Desenvolvimento e Pesquisa (CDP), Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, (INMET), Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, CEP 01246-903, SP, Brazil.
Int J Biometeorol. 2012 Mar;56(2):233-41. doi: 10.1007/s00484-011-0419-4. Epub 2011 Mar 3.
In this work, we correlate the daily number of human leptospirosis cases with several climatic factors. We used a negative binomial model that considers hospital daily admissions due to leptospirosis as the dependent variable, and the climatic variables of daily precipitation pattern, and maximum and minimum temperature as independent variables. We calculated the monthly leptospirosis admission probabilities from the precipitation and maximum temperature variables. The month of February showed the highest probability, although values were also high during the spring months. The month of February also showed the highest number of hospital admissions. Another interesting result is that, for every 20 mm precipitation, there was an average increase of 31.5% in hospital admissions. Additionally, the relative risk of leptospirosis varied from 1.1 to 2.0 when the precipitation varied from 20 to 140 mm.
在这项工作中，我们将每日人类钩端螺旋体病病例数与几个气候因素相关联。我们使用了负二项模型，将因钩端螺旋体病而导致的医院每日入院人数作为因变量，将每日降水模式和最高、最低温度等气候变量作为自变量。我们从降水和最高温度变量计算了每月钩端螺旋体病入院的概率。2 月显示出最高的概率，尽管在春季几个月的数值也很高。2 月也显示出最高的医院入院人数。另一个有趣的结果是，每增加 20 毫米的降水，医院入院人数平均增加 31.5%。此外，当降水从 20 毫米变化到 140 毫米时，钩端螺旋体病的相对风险从 1.1 变化到 2.0。
