Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
Institut Pasteur, Institut Pasteur International Network, Noumea, New Caledonia.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Apr 17;8(4):e2798. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002798. eCollection 2014 Apr.
Leptospirosis is an important cause of seasonal outbreaks in New Caledonia and the tropics. Using time series derived from high-quality laboratory-based surveillance from 2000-2012, we evaluated whether climatic factors, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and meteorological conditions allow for the prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia. We found that La Niña periods are associated with high rainfall, and both of these factors were in turn, temporally associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis. The sea surface temperature in El Niño Box 4 allowed forecasting of leptospirosis outbreaks four months into the future, a time lag allowing public health authorities to increase preparedness. To our knowledge, our observations in New Caledonia are the first demonstration that ENSO has a strong association with leptospirosis. This association should be tested in other regions in the South Pacific, Asia or Latin America where ENSO may drive climate variability and the risk for leptospirosis outbreaks.
钩端螺旋体病是新喀里多尼亚和热带地区季节性爆发的重要原因。利用 2000-2012 年高质量基于实验室的监测获得的时间序列，我们评估了气候因素（包括厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）和气象条件）是否可以预测新喀里多尼亚的钩端螺旋体病爆发。我们发现拉尼娜时期与高降雨量有关，而这两个因素反过来又与钩端螺旋体病的爆发有关。厄尔尼诺海温箱 4 的海面温度可以预测未来四个月的钩端螺旋体病爆发，这一时间滞后使公共卫生当局有时间增加准备。据我们所知，我们在新喀里多尼亚的观察结果是首次证明 ENSO 与钩端螺旋体病有很强的关联。这种关联应该在南太平洋、亚洲或拉丁美洲的其他地区进行测试，在这些地区，ENSO 可能会驱动气候变异性和钩端螺旋体病爆发的风险。
