University of California, San Francisco, 3333 California St., Suite 245, San Francisco, CA 94118, USA.
Prev Sci. 2011 Sep;12(3):247-54. doi: 10.1007/s11121-011-0209-6.
Previous studies suggest that earlier cigarette smoking initiation in adolescence predicts greater cigarette consumption later in adolescence or adulthood. Results from these studies have been used to inform interventions for adolescent smoking. However, previous studies suffer from several important methodological limitations. The objective of the present study was to address these limitations by longitudinally and prospectively examining whether and how age of initiation of smoking among adolescents predicts cigarette consumption by age 16 or 17. Participants completed an in-class survey every 6 months for 2-3 school years. Participants included 395 adolescents (Mean age=14 years at baseline; 53.2% female) from two public high schools in Northern California (Schools A and B) who completed self-report measures of smoking initiation, number of friends who smoke, and number of whole cigarettes smoked by the final survey time point. Adolescents who were older when they first smoked one whole cigarette were 5.3 to 14.6 times more likely in School A and 2.9 to 4.3 times more likely in School B to have smoked a greater number of cigarettes by age 16 or 17. Results suggested that earlier smoking initiation may not lead to heavier cigarette consumption later in time, as has been previously shown. There may be a period of heightened vulnerability in mid- or late adolescence where smoking experimentation is more likely to lead to greater cigarette consumption. Targeting prevention efforts to adolescents aged 14 to 17 years may further reduce smoking initiation among youth, thus limiting subsequent smoking-related morbidity and mortality in adulthood.
先前的研究表明，青少年时期较早开始吸烟预示着他们在青少年后期或成年后会有更大的吸烟量。这些研究的结果被用来为青少年吸烟干预措施提供信息。然而，先前的研究存在几个重要的方法学限制。本研究的目的是通过纵向和前瞻性地研究青少年吸烟起始年龄是否以及如何预测 16 或 17 岁时的吸烟量，来解决这些限制。参与者每 6 个月在课堂上完成一次调查，持续 2-3 学年。参与者包括来自北加州两所公立高中的 395 名青少年（基线时平均年龄为 14 岁；53.2%为女性），他们完成了关于吸烟起始年龄、吸烟朋友数量和最后一次调查时点吸烟量的自我报告测量。在学校 A 和学校 B，首次吸烟整支烟时年龄较大的青少年在 16 或 17 岁时吸烟量较大的可能性是首次吸烟整支烟时年龄较小的青少年的 5.3 到 14.6 倍和 2.9 到 4.3 倍。结果表明，先前的研究表明，早期吸烟可能不会导致以后吸烟量的增加，这与以前的研究结果一致。在青少年中期或后期，可能会有一个易感性增强的时期，吸烟实验更有可能导致吸烟量的增加。针对 14 至 17 岁青少年的预防措施可能会进一步减少青少年的吸烟起始率，从而限制成年后与吸烟相关的发病率和死亡率。
