Department of Public Health and Hygiene, Oita Medical University, 879-5593, Hazama, Oita, Japan,
Environ Health Prev Med. 1999 Apr;4(1):13-23. doi: 10.1007/BF02931245.
The gravity model, a method for analyzing transportation distribution in transportation engineering, was used to explain patient trips between ten health service regions in a Japanese prefecture. The OD (Origin-Destination) tables were constructed with zoning by regions, distinguishing between out- and inpatients. The observed trips were determined from the data of a survey conducted in 1992 that reported the locations of patient residences and chosen medical facilities.The base values used in the model calculations were the population size of each region and the road distance between the centers of regions. Problems of intrazonal trip were avoided by setting a mean intrazonal movement distance.This model was calibrated by the linear regression method with simultaneous validation by the index of correlation coefficients. The model was found to accurately simulate the effect of distance on the choice of medical facilities and the differences between the characteristics of in- and out-patients. The population value in use showed the relation not only with demand but also the supply of clinical services. It was suggested that the model presented here was useful in the allocation of medical resources and would help explain the relationship between suppliers and consumers of medical services.
重力模型是交通工程中用于分析交通分布的一种方法，被用于解释日本某县十个医疗服务区之间的患者出行。使用分区法（按区域划分）构建了 OD（出发地-目的地）表，区分了门诊患者和住院患者。通过 1992 年进行的一项调查数据确定了观察到的出行，该调查报告了患者住所和选择的医疗设施的位置。模型计算中使用的基础值是每个区域的人口规模和区域中心之间的道路距离。通过设置平均区内移动距离来避免区内出行问题。该模型通过线性回归方法进行校准，并通过相关系数指数同时进行验证。结果表明，该模型能够准确模拟距离对医疗设施选择的影响以及门诊和住院患者特征的差异。使用的人口值不仅与需求有关，还与临床服务的供应有关。研究结果表明，本文提出的模型在医疗资源配置方面是有用的，并有助于解释医疗服务的供应方和需求方之间的关系。
