Segura Noguera J M, Sanz Carreras F, Bastida Bastús N, Martí Guadaño N, González Espiñeira C, Guerrero Gancedo M
EAP Raval Nord, CAP Dr. Lluís Sayé, Ciutat Vella, Barcelona.
Aten Primaria. 1996 Mar 15;17(4):292-4.
To find a predictive model for the geographical distribution of the homebound chronically ill in function of variables corresponding to censal areas.
A study of an ecological type.
Raval Nord Health District, Barcelona.
The study units are the 30 censal areas of Raval Nord. In each area researchers counted the number of homebound chronically ill recorded during the first three months of a home care programme (May 1994).
A multiple regression analysis was performed, with selection of the variables by the stepwise method of the SPSS-PC+ statistical package, taking as dependent variable "y" the number of homebound chronically ill per 1,000 inhabitants. The prognostic variables were taken from the 1991 municipal roll, and evaluated along with the distance in metres from each censal area to the primary care centre (PCC). The distribution of the homebound chronically ill in the different censal areas of Raval Nord was connected to 3 variables which, in order of analysis, were: distance to the PCC, the relationship with senile dependency and the index of family socio-economic capacity.
Distance, senile dependence and economic resources are factors which condition the number and distribution of the homebound chronically ill.
根据与普查区域相对应的变量，寻找居家慢性病患者地理分布的预测模型。
一项生态类型研究。
巴塞罗那拉瓦尔北区健康区。
研究单位为拉瓦尔北区的30个普查区域。研究人员统计了每个区域在一项家庭护理计划（1994年5月）的前三个月记录的居家慢性病患者数量。
进行多元回归分析，采用SPSS-PC+统计软件包的逐步法选择变量，将每1000名居民中居家慢性病患者的数量作为因变量“y”。预测变量取自1991年市政名册，并与每个普查区域到初级保健中心（PCC）的距离（以米为单位）一起进行评估。拉瓦尔北区不同普查区域中居家慢性病患者的分布与3个变量相关，按分析顺序依次为：到PCC的距离、老年依赖关系和家庭社会经济能力指数。
距离、老年依赖和经济资源是影响居家慢性病患者数量和分布的因素。
