Department of Economics, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.
Eur J Health Econ. 2012 Aug;13(4):393-407. doi: 10.1007/s10198-011-0311-5. Epub 2011 Apr 19.
An important element of the process by which new drugs achieve widespread use is their adoption by GPs. In this paper, we explore the factors that shape the timing of the first prescription of six new drugs by General Practitioners in Ireland. Our analysis is based on a dataset that matches prescription data with data on GP characteristics. We then use duration analysis to explore both equilibrium and non-equilibrium determinants of prescribing innovation. Our study highlights a range of commonalities across all of the drugs considered and suggests the importance of GP and practice characteristics in shaping prescribing decisions. We also find strongly significant, and consistently signed, stock and order effects across these drugs: GPs who have a track record of early adoption tend also to be early adopters of other new drugs; and, the larger the proportion of GPs which have already adopted a new drug the slower is subsequent adoption. Epidemic and learning effects are also evident with slower adoption by rural practices and among those GPs with narrower prescribing portfolios.
新药广泛应用的过程中，一个重要的环节是全科医生（GP）的采用。本文探讨了影响爱尔兰全科医生首次开出六种新药的因素。我们的分析基于一个将处方数据与 GP 特征数据相匹配的数据集。然后，我们使用持续时间分析来探索处方创新的均衡和非均衡决定因素。我们的研究强调了所有考虑的药物之间的一系列共性，并表明 GP 和实践特征在制定处方决策中的重要性。我们还发现，这些药物都存在着显著的、一致的库存和订单效应：有早期采用记录的 GP 往往也是其他新药的早期采用者；而且，已经采用新药的 GP 比例越大，后续采用的速度就越慢。传染病和学习效应也很明显，农村实践和处方范围较窄的 GP 采用速度较慢。
