戒烟的马尔可夫模型。
Markov model of smoking cessation.
机构信息
Department of Psychology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1104, USA.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Sep 13;108 Suppl 3(Suppl 3):15549-56. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1011277108. Epub 2011 Apr 20.
Abstract
Survival functions from smoking cessation interventions are described by a three-state Markov model. On quitting, smokers transit through a state of withdrawal characterized by a high rate of relapse, and then into a more secure state of long-term abstinence. The Markov model embodies the dynamic nature of the cessation/relapse process; it permits stronger inference to long-term abstinence rates, provides measures of treatment efficacy, describes the outcomes of new quit attempts, and suggests mechanisms for the survival process.
摘要
戒烟干预的生存函数通过一个三状态马尔可夫模型来描述。戒烟后，吸烟者会经历一个戒断状态，其特点是高复发率，然后进入更稳定的长期戒烟状态。马尔可夫模型体现了戒烟/复吸过程的动态本质；它允许对长期戒烟率进行更强的推断，提供治疗效果的衡量标准，描述新戒烟尝试的结果，并提出生存过程的机制。
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