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马尔可夫模型——量化戒烟咨询成功的前景。

Markov model- Quantifying outlook towards success of tobacco cessation counseling.

作者信息

Nikose Yashasvi, Madhu Priyanka P, Reche Amit, Agarwal Priya, Jidewar Namrata, Sayyed Maviya, Chhabra Kumar G

机构信息

Department of Public Health Dentistry, Sharad Pawar Dental College and Hospital, DMIMS (Deemed to Be University), Sawangi (Meghe), Wardha, Maharashtra, India.

出版信息

J Family Med Prim Care. 2022 Aug;11(8):4263-4266. doi: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_2096_21. Epub 2022 Aug 30.

Abstract

Smoking is still a major public health issue that causes morbidity and mortality all over the world. The percentage of deaths caused by tobacco smoking has escalated from 1.4% in 1990 to 13.3% by 2020. There are numerous evidence-based tobacco control strategies available, and newer ones are always being developed. However, on ceasing the habit, cigarettes users go through a period of withdrawal with an increased percentage of relapse before entering to a more stable condition of sobriety in the long run. In this review, Endnote software was used as resource material to collect literature, which was then carefully arranged in a synchronised way. The Markov model captures the dynamic character of the quitting/relapse process, allowing for more accurate figures of abstinence rate, treatment outcomes and evaluating the performance of newer cessation initiatives during tobacco cessation counselling, as well as suggesting pathways for survivability.

摘要

吸烟仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题,在全球范围内导致发病和死亡。吸烟导致的死亡百分比已从1990年的1.4%上升到2020年的13.3%。有许多基于证据的烟草控制策略,并且新的策略也在不断开发。然而,一旦戒烟,吸烟者会经历一段戒断期,在最终进入更稳定的清醒状态之前,复发率会增加。在本综述中,使用Endnote软件作为资源材料来收集文献,然后以同步方式仔细整理。马尔可夫模型捕捉了戒烟/复发过程的动态特征,能够得出更准确的戒断率、治疗结果数据,并在戒烟咨询期间评估新戒烟举措的效果,还能为提高戒烟成功率提供途径。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/96e6/9638580/3e2191c0cbd8/JFMPC-11-4263-g001.jpg

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