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马尔可夫模型——量化戒烟咨询成功的前景。

Markov model- Quantifying outlook towards success of tobacco cessation counseling.

作者信息

Nikose Yashasvi, Madhu Priyanka P, Reche Amit, Agarwal Priya, Jidewar Namrata, Sayyed Maviya, Chhabra Kumar G

机构信息

Department of Public Health Dentistry, Sharad Pawar Dental College and Hospital, DMIMS (Deemed to Be University), Sawangi (Meghe), Wardha, Maharashtra, India.

出版信息

J Family Med Prim Care. 2022 Aug;11(8):4263-4266. doi: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_2096_21. Epub 2022 Aug 30.

DOI:10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_2096_21
PMID:36352913
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9638580/
Abstract

Smoking is still a major public health issue that causes morbidity and mortality all over the world. The percentage of deaths caused by tobacco smoking has escalated from 1.4% in 1990 to 13.3% by 2020. There are numerous evidence-based tobacco control strategies available, and newer ones are always being developed. However, on ceasing the habit, cigarettes users go through a period of withdrawal with an increased percentage of relapse before entering to a more stable condition of sobriety in the long run. In this review, Endnote software was used as resource material to collect literature, which was then carefully arranged in a synchronised way. The Markov model captures the dynamic character of the quitting/relapse process, allowing for more accurate figures of abstinence rate, treatment outcomes and evaluating the performance of newer cessation initiatives during tobacco cessation counselling, as well as suggesting pathways for survivability.

摘要

吸烟仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题,在全球范围内导致发病和死亡。吸烟导致的死亡百分比已从1990年的1.4%上升到2020年的13.3%。有许多基于证据的烟草控制策略,并且新的策略也在不断开发。然而,一旦戒烟,吸烟者会经历一段戒断期,在最终进入更稳定的清醒状态之前,复发率会增加。在本综述中,使用Endnote软件作为资源材料来收集文献,然后以同步方式仔细整理。马尔可夫模型捕捉了戒烟/复发过程的动态特征,能够得出更准确的戒断率、治疗结果数据,并在戒烟咨询期间评估新戒烟举措的效果,还能为提高戒烟成功率提供途径。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/96e6/9638580/3e2191c0cbd8/JFMPC-11-4263-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/96e6/9638580/3e2191c0cbd8/JFMPC-11-4263-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/96e6/9638580/3e2191c0cbd8/JFMPC-11-4263-g001.jpg

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Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2020 Jan 1;21(1):81-86. doi: 10.31557/APJCP.2020.21.1.81.
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Cost-effectiveness of a high-intensity versus a low-intensity smoking cessation intervention in a dental setting: long-term follow-up.在牙科环境中高强度与低强度戒烟干预措施的成本效益比较:长期随访。
BMJ Open. 2019 Aug 15;9(8):e030934. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030934.
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Tobacco cessation in India: a contemporary issue in public health dentistry.
印度的戒烟:公共卫生牙科领域的一个当代问题。
Indian J Dent Res. 2012 Jan-Feb;23(1):123. doi: 10.4103/0970-9290.99061.
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Economic evaluation of smoking-cessation therapies: a critical and systematic review of simulation models.戒烟疗法的经济评价:模拟模型的批判性和系统性回顾。
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Markov model of smoking cessation.戒烟的马尔可夫模型。
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