Liu Echu, Yu Wei-Choun, Hsieh Hsin-Ling
School of Allied Health, Southern Illinois University at Carbondale, Carbondale, Illinois, USA.
J Health Care Finance. 2011 Spring;37(3):62-71.
Using a set of state-level longitudinal data from 1954 through 2005, this study investigates the "long-run equilibrium" relationship between cigarette excise taxes and the mortality rates of respiratory cancers in the United States. Statistical tests show that both cigarette excise taxes in real terms and mortality rates from respiratory cancers contain unit roots and are co-integrated. Estimates of co-integrating vectors indicated that a 10 percent increase in real cigarette excise tax rate leads to a 2.5 percent reduction in respiratory cancer mortality rate, implying a decline of 3,922 deaths per year, on a national level in the long run. These effects are statistically significant at the one percent level. Moreover, estimates of co-integrating vectors show that higher cigarette excise tax rates lead to lower mortality rates in most states; however, this relationship does not hold for Alaska, Florida, Hawaii, and Texas.
本研究利用一组1954年至2005年的州级纵向数据，调查了美国香烟消费税与呼吸道癌症死亡率之间的“长期均衡”关系。统计检验表明，实际香烟消费税和呼吸道癌症死亡率都含有单位根且存在协整关系。协整向量估计表明，实际香烟消费税税率每提高10%，呼吸道癌症死亡率就会降低2.5%，这意味着从长期来看，在全国范围内每年死亡人数会减少3922人。这些影响在1%的水平上具有统计学意义。此外，协整向量估计显示，在大多数州，较高的香烟消费税税率会导致较低的死亡率；然而，阿拉斯加、佛罗里达、夏威夷和得克萨斯州并不存在这种关系。
