Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Demography. 2011 May;48(2):401-24. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0016-5.
The existing literature on forced migration limits our understanding of how violence affects migration to competing destinations. This article adds to the literature on forced migration by studying how armed violence during a period of civil conflict in south-central Nepal influenced the likelihood of local, internal, and international migration. We find that violence has a nonlinear effect on migration, such that low to moderate levels of violence reduce the odds of movement, but when violence reaches high levels, the odds of movement increase. We also find that the effect of violence on mobility increases as the distance of the move increases. When we consider the influence of violence on microlevel decision-making, we find that the effects of individual and household-level determinants were mostly consistent with hypotheses derived from contemporary theories of voluntary migration and that no predictor of migration influenced the decision to migrate differently in the presence of violence.
现有关于被迫移民的文献限制了我们对暴力如何影响移民到竞争目的地的理解。本文通过研究尼泊尔中南部内战期间的武装暴力如何影响当地、国内和国际移民的可能性，为被迫移民文献增添了新内容。我们发现，暴力对移民的影响呈非线性，即低到中等程度的暴力会降低移民的可能性，但当暴力达到高程度时，移民的可能性会增加。我们还发现，暴力对流动性的影响随着迁移距离的增加而增加。当我们考虑暴力对微观决策的影响时，我们发现个人和家庭层面决定因素的影响与自愿移民当代理论得出的假设大多一致，而且没有一个移民预测因素在存在暴力的情况下对移民决策产生不同的影响。
