International Centre of Research in Agronomy for Development (CIRAD), Montpellier, France.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2011 Aug;11(8):1085-91. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2010.0234. Epub 2011 May 6.
Current knowledge suggests that there is a low-level and recurrent circulation of West Nile virus (WNV) in Europe, with sporadic human and/or equines cases. However, recent events indicate that this picture is changing, raising the possibility that Europe could experience a modification in the virus' circulation patterns. We used an existing model of WNV circulation between Southern Europe and West Africa to estimate the sample size of equivalent West Nile surveillance systems, either passive (based upon horse populations and sentinel veterinarians) or active (sentinel horses, sentinel chickens, or WNV genome detection in trapped mosquito pools). The costs and calendar day of first detection of these different surveillance systems were compared under three different epidemiological scenarios: very low level circulation, low level recurrent circulation, and epidemic situation. The passive surveillance of 1000 horses by specialized veterinarian clinics appeared to be the most cost-effective system in the current European context, and estimated median dates of first detection appeared consistent with recent field observations. Our results can be used to optimize surveillance designs for different epidemiological requirements.
目前的知识表明，西尼罗河病毒（WNV）在欧洲呈低水平和周期性循环，偶尔会出现人类和/或马属动物病例。然而，最近的事件表明，这种情况正在发生变化，欧洲有可能经历病毒传播模式的改变。我们使用了现有的南欧和西非之间WNV 循环模型，来估计相当于西尼罗河监测系统的样本量，这些监测系统可以是被动的（基于马群和哨点兽医）或主动的（哨点马、哨点鸡或在诱捕的蚊子池中检测 WNV 基因组）。在三种不同的流行病学情景下，比较了这些不同监测系统的成本和首次检测的日历日：低水平循环、低水平周期性循环和疫情。在当前的欧洲背景下，由专门兽医诊所对 1000 匹马进行的被动监测似乎是最具成本效益的系统，估计的首次检测中位数日期与最近的实地观察结果一致。我们的研究结果可以用于根据不同的流行病学需求优化监测设计。
