Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Lab, Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain.
International Vaccination Center of Malaga, Maritime Port of Malaga, Ministry of Health, Consumption and Social Welfare, Government of Spain, Málaga, Spain.
Euro Surveill. 2023 Oct;28(40). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.40.2200844.
BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus with an enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes; humans and horses are incidental dead-end hosts. In 2020, the largest outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the Iberian Peninsula occurred, with 141 clusters in horses and 77 human cases.AimWe analysed which drivers influence spillover from the cycle to humans and equines and identified areas at risk for WNV transmission.MethodsBased on data on WNV cases in horses and humans in 2020 in Portugal and Spain, we developed logistic regression models using environmental and anthropic variables to highlight risk areas. Models were adapted to a high-resolution risk map.ResultsCases of WNV in horses could be used as indicators of viral activity and thus predict cases in humans. The risk map of horses was able to define high-risk areas for previous cases in humans and equines in Portugal and Spain, as well as predict human and horse cases in the transmission seasons of 2021 and 2022. We found that the spatial patterns of the favourable areas for outbreaks correspond to the main hydrographic basins of the Iberian Peninsula, jointly affecting Portugal and Spain.ConclusionA risk map highlighting the risk areas for potential future cases could be cost-effective as a means of promoting preventive measures to decrease incidence of WNV infection in Europe, based on a One Health surveillance approach.
西尼罗河病毒（WNV）是一种黄病毒，在鸟类和蚊子之间存在地方性循环；人类和马是偶然的末端宿主。2020 年，伊比利亚半岛发生了西尼罗河病毒感染的最大爆发，马群中有 141 个集群，77 例人类病例。目的：我们分析了哪些驱动因素影响病毒从循环溢出到人类和马，并确定了WNV 传播的风险区域。方法：基于 2020 年葡萄牙和西班牙马和人类WNV 病例的数据，我们使用环境和人为变量开发了逻辑回归模型，以突出风险区域。模型适应了高分辨率风险地图。结果：马的 WNV 病例可用作病毒活动的指标，从而预测人类病例。马的风险地图能够定义葡萄牙和西班牙人类和马先前病例的高风险区域，并预测 2021 年和 2022 年传播季节的人类和马病例。我们发现，有利于暴发的有利区域的空间模式与伊比利亚半岛的主要水文流域相对应，共同影响葡萄牙和西班牙。结论：突出潜在未来病例风险区域的风险地图可能具有成本效益，作为基于One Health 监测方法的减少欧洲 WNV 感染发病率的预防措施的促进手段。
