Dewitte Sharon N
Department of Anthropology, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY 12222.
J Archaeol Sci. 2010 Dec 1;37(12):3394-3400. doi: 10.1016/j.jas.2010.08.006.
This paper examines adult age-specific mortality patterns of one of the most devastating epidemics in recorded history, the Black Death of A.D. 1347-351. The goal was to determine whether the epidemic affected all ages equally or if it targeted certain age groups. Analyses were done using a sample of 337 individuals excavated from the East Smithfield cemetery in London, which contains only individuals who died during the Black Death in London in 1349-1350. The age patterns from East Smithfield were compared to a sample of 207 individuals who died from non-epidemic causes of mortality. Ages were estimated using the method of transition analysis, and age-specific mortality was evaluated using a hazards model. The results indicate that the risk of mortality during the Black Death increased with adult age, and therefore that age had an effect on risk of death during the epidemic. The age patterns in the Black Death cemetery were similar to those from the non-epidemic mortality sample. The results from this study are consistent with previous findings suggesting that despite the devastating nature of the Black Death, the 14(th)-century disease had general patterns of selectivity that were similar to those associated with normal medieval mortality.
本文研究了有记录以来最具毁灭性的流行病之一，即公元1347 - 1351年的黑死病在不同成年年龄段的死亡率模式。目标是确定该流行病对所有年龄段的影响是否相同，或者它是否针对某些特定年龄组。分析使用了从伦敦东史密斯菲尔德公墓发掘出的337名个体的样本，该公墓仅包含在1349 - 1350年伦敦黑死病期间死亡的个体。将东史密斯菲尔德的年龄模式与207名因非流行病原因死亡的个体样本进行了比较。使用过渡分析方法估计年龄，并使用风险模型评估特定年龄的死亡率。结果表明，黑死病期间的死亡风险随着成年年龄的增长而增加，因此年龄对该流行病期间的死亡风险有影响。黑死病公墓中的年龄模式与非流行病死亡率样本中的相似。这项研究的结果与之前的发现一致，表明尽管黑死病具有毁灭性，但这种14世纪的疾病具有与正常中世纪死亡率相关的一般选择性模式。
