Beltrán-Sánchez Hiram, Soneji Samir
Davis School of Gerontology at the University of Southern California, USA.
Theor Popul Biol. 2011 Aug;80(1):38-48. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2011.05.002. Epub 2011 May 12.
For over forty years, demographers have worked intensely to develop methods that assess a gain in life expectancy from a reduction in mortality, either hypothetical or observed. This considerable body of research was motivated by assessing the gains in life expectancy when mortality declined in a particular manner and determining the contribution of a cause of death in observed changes in life expectancy over time. As yet, there has been no framework unifying this important demographic work. In this paper, we provide a unifying framework for assessing the change in life expectancy given a change in age- and cause-specific mortality. We consider both conceptualizations of mortality change-counterfactual assessment of a hypothetical change and a retrospective assessment of an observed change. We apply our methodology to violent deaths, the leading cause of death among young adults, and show that realistic targeted reductions could have important impacts on life expectancy.
四十多年来，人口统计学家一直致力于开发各种方法，以评估因死亡率下降（无论是假设的还是实际观察到的）而导致的预期寿命增长。这大量的研究工作旨在评估当死亡率以特定方式下降时预期寿命的增长情况，并确定在观察到的预期寿命随时间变化中某一死因所起的作用。然而，目前尚无一个框架能够统一这项重要的人口统计学工作。在本文中，我们提供了一个统一的框架，用于评估在年龄和死因别死亡率发生变化的情况下预期寿命的变化。我们既考虑死亡率变化的两种概念化方式——对假设变化的反事实评估以及对观察到的变化的回顾性评估。我们将我们的方法应用于暴力死亡（年轻人的主要死因），结果表明切实可行的针对性降低措施可能对预期寿命产生重要影响。
