Vaupel James W, Romo Vladimir Canudas
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Str. 1, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.
Demography. 2003 May;40(2):201-16. doi: 10.1353/dem.2003.0018.
We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates at all ages, and the second term captures the effect of heterogeneity in the pace of improvement in mortality at different ages. We extend the formula to decompose change in life expectancy into age-specific and cause-specific components, and apply the methods to analyze changes in life expectancy in Sweden and Japan.
我们通过提出并证明一个用于分解预期寿命随时间持续变化的新公式，扩展了内森·凯菲茨关于预期寿命随时间持续变化的研究。该公式将预期寿命随时间的变化分为两项。第一项捕捉所有年龄段死亡率下降的总体影响，第二项捕捉不同年龄段死亡率改善速度的异质性影响。我们扩展该公式，将预期寿命的变化分解为特定年龄和特定原因的组成部分，并应用这些方法分析瑞典和日本预期寿命的变化。
