Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Mechanical Engineering Building, 3rd Floor, Exhibition Road, South Kensington, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2011 Jul 12;366(1573):1966-74. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0395.
Expanding international trade and increased transportation are heavily implicated in the growing threat posed by invasive pathogens to biodiversity and landscapes. With trees and woodland in the UK now facing threats from a number of disease systems, this paper looks to historical experience with the Dutch elm disease (DED) epidemic of the 1970s to see what can be learned about an outbreak and attempts to prevent, manage and control it. The paper draws on an interdisciplinary investigation into the history, biology and policy of the epidemic. It presents a reconstruction based on a spatial modelling exercise underpinned by archival research and interviews with individuals involved in the attempted management of the epidemic at the time. The paper explores what, if anything, might have been done to contain the outbreak and discusses the wider lessons for plant protection. Reading across to present-day biosecurity concerns, the paper looks at the current outbreak of ramorum blight in the UK and presents an analysis of the unfolding epidemiology and policy of this more recent, and potentially very serious, disease outbreak. The paper concludes by reflecting on the continuing contemporary relevance of the DED experience at an important juncture in the evolution of plant protection policy.
国际贸易的扩大和交通的增加与入侵病原体对生物多样性和景观构成的威胁日益严重密切相关。由于英国的树木和林地现在面临着多种疾病系统的威胁，本文借鉴了 20 世纪 70 年代荷兰榆树病（DED）流行的历史经验，以了解有关疫情爆发及其预防、管理和控制的情况。本文借鉴了对该疫情的历史、生物学和政策的跨学科调查。它基于档案研究和对当时参与疫情管理的个人的采访，提出了基于空间建模的重建。本文探讨了如果有可能采取任何措施来控制疫情，并讨论了植物保护的更广泛教训。本文通过跨学科的方式关注当前英国的 ramorum 枯萎病爆发，并对这一更为近期、可能非常严重的疾病爆发的流行病学和政策展开分析。本文最后通过反思 DED 经验在植物保护政策演变的重要关头的持续当代相关性进行总结。
