Godfray H Charles J, Mason-D'Croz Daniel, Robinson Sherman
Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC 20006, USA.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016 Dec 5;371(1709). doi: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0467.
Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of 'stress-testing' the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.
真菌病害是对人类赖以生存的最重要农作物的重大威胁。如果发生一场严重减产的重大疫情,其影响将波及全球化的粮食系统。为了探究这些影响,我们使用全球粮食系统的局部均衡经济模型(IMPACT)来研究一种假设的严重但持续时间较短的疫情,该疫情使受影响国家的水稻产量降低80%。我们模拟了一系列严重程度不断增加的疫情情景,从东南亚一个国家出现这种病害开始,到东亚大部分地区都存在这种病原体结束。疫情及随后的作物损失导致全球大米价格大幅上涨。然而,只要全球商品贸易不受限制且能够足够迅速地做出反应,对个人卡路里消费的影响在很大程度上就能得到缓解。预计撒哈拉以南非洲的净大米进口贫困国家会受到一些更严重的影响,这些国家并未直接受到病害影响,但却因大米价格上涨而遭受损失。我们对模型的假设进行了批判,并探讨了危机时期限制贸易的政治经济压力。最后,我们强调了“压力测试”全球粮食系统应对作物病害和其他冲击的复原力的重要性。本文是主题为“应对真菌对动物健康、粮食安全和生态系统复原力的新威胁”的特刊的一部分。
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016-12-5
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016-12-5
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016-12-5
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016-12-5
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