National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University (AAU), Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark.
Sci Total Environ. 2011 Aug 15;409(18):3520-6. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.002.
A statistically robust method was applied to 83 time-series of mercury in Arctic biota from marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems with the purpose of generating a 'meta-analysis' of temporal trend data collected over the past two to three decades, mostly under the auspices of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). Sampling locations ranged from Alaska in the west to northern Scandinavia in the east. Information from recently published temporal trend studies was tabulated to supplement the results of the statistical analyses. No generally consistent trend was evident across tissues and species from the circumpolar Arctic during the last 30years or so. However, there was a clear west-to-east gradient in the occurrence of recent increasing Hg trends, with larger numbers and a higher proportion of biotic datasets in the Canadian and Greenland region of the Arctic showing significant increases than in the North Atlantic Arctic. Most of the increasing datasets were for marine species, especially marine mammals. A total of 16 (19%) out of the 83 time-series could be classified as "adequate", where adequate is defined as the number of actual monitoring years in a time-series being equal to or greater than the number of years of sampling required to detect a 5% annual change in Hg concentrations, with a significance level of P<0.05 and 80% statistical power. At the time of the previous AMAP Assessment, only 10% of the Hg time-series were deemed adequate. If an additional 5years of data were to be added to the current set of time-series, it is predicted that 53% of time-series would become adequate.
采用一种统计学稳健方法对来自海洋、淡水和陆地生态系统的 83 个北极生物群系汞的时间序列进行了分析，旨在对过去二十到三十年期间收集的时间趋势数据进行“荟萃分析”，这些数据主要是在北极监测与评估方案（AMAP）的支持下收集的。采样地点从西部的阿拉斯加延伸到东部的斯堪的纳维亚北部。为了补充统计分析的结果，还列出了最近发表的时间趋势研究的信息。在过去大约 30 年中，在环极北极的各种组织和物种中，没有明显的一致趋势。然而，在最近的汞上升趋势中，从西向东出现了明显的梯度，在北极的加拿大和格陵兰地区，生物数据集的数量更多，比例更高，表明有显著增加，而在北大西洋北极地区则没有。大多数上升的数据集都是海洋物种，特别是海洋哺乳动物。在 83 个时间序列中，有 16 个（19%）可以被归类为“充分”，充分的定义是时间序列中的实际监测年数等于或大于检测汞浓度每年 5%变化所需的采样年数，显著性水平 P<0.05，统计效力为 80%。在上一次 AMAP 评估时，只有 10%的汞时间序列被认为是充分的。如果当前的时间序列再增加 5 年的数据，预计将有 53%的时间序列变得充分。
